DIY and VATHave written this post several times in my head this week but not had time to post it, so here goes.
Just watching the Pompey game against Milan, which is one of the games in my 5 game acca tonight.
Pompey have just scored which has knacked things up but also laid the draw so going to make some money still.
Just checked and PSG have failed to win as well, so no Christmas bonus tonight but a small profit.
Acca's and trebles from 6 have been my latest punting adventure to try and land some serious cash but only a break even tenner on Saturday so far.
I think the trebles from 6 works well if the odds are right. Anything 15/8 and over normally breaks even if 3 results come in and then the more the merrier. The late Arsenal goal scuppered me on Tuesday, though again I had laid Arsenal after half an hour and greened up for a tenner, which was nice!
Another project I'm starting to look at is the matched betting opportunities highlighted by Darren over at Bet72 using his Oddsmatcher application.
Looks like a great way to build up some cash, though my first attempt was screwed as I backed Fenerbache instead of Fiorentina and then had to take a bigger loss on the qualifying bet instead!
It was only a £15 free bet at 888sport.com, so no big problem and earned £7 odd.
Will continue to pursue, though it does tie some money up for a few days, which I find hard to handle.
Pompey game just finished 2-2 and made a fiver, though if I'd had laid them for a free bet @ 1.04 could have made a few hundred instead. Typical.
Man Of Mystery has asked me to mention the competition he's running over at JuiceStorm to win free minutes to use Racing Traders excellent piece of trading software BetTrader. I used to use this software before I converted over to Linux and Betdaq, but if I go back I will certainly download another copy and try run in my Vertial Box.
MOM is also having a lively debate about trading between him and Cassini among others on there, as well as his excellent radio shows. He has invited me for an interview but I think at this point in time I will decline gracefully.
No progress on BRAVO as yet because as the title suggests I have been busy doing some jobs around the house again, and not had change to create some ratings to create my own selections.
We now though have our old LCD telly on the wall in the dining room, which should help me catch some more footy while the kids hog the living room telly with the PS3.
Finally let me add that whoever thought that reducing VAT down to 15% need his brown briefcase shoving where the sun don't shine! It has caused us (and no doubt many other IT geeks) no end of extra work as we frantic go about checking our systems and head into the weekend having to work though to hit the stupid deadline.
It's going to cost businesses shed loads to sort out and benefit hardly anyone. Thanks you Mr Darling!
Little bit of politics to finish there, until the next time.....Stay Lucky. Bravo BravoFirstly, well done to England and Fabio in gaining another impressive victory tonight. The tabloids will have a field day I'm sure. World Cup winners!
The title though does refer to my now missing in action rating system BRAVO, which I am now looking to re-create on my recently installed Linux system.
I had attempted to partition the hard disk, so I could run Linux and Windows side by side, but got a famous blue screen error from Windows and so installed Linux instead.
However it meant I lost the new BRAVO 2.0 I was working on but had got stuck storing historic data.
Now running Ubuntu with Windows in a vertical box for programs such as Bet Angel, things are going well. I have now installed Ruby on Rails and MySql to work on the new BRAVO 2.1.
The only slight problem is that I'm not used to programming in Object Orientated languages as I've been using ancient languages such as COBOL (which the original BRAVO was written in) for many years now.
However Ruby is supposed to be one of the easiest to learn and I'm looking forward to getting to grips with it, if I can grab a couple of hours here and there.
Started drawing up the databases I need to create and found some code which can load CSV data into MySql database.
I hope I can have something running by Christmas, but we'll see.
Finally thanks to Talkbet and Mark Iverson for the comments.
Stay Lucky. More Mis-stakes2 posts in 2 days, I must be getting more organised!
Well I've just finished a back breaking day in the bedroom(!) taking down the hideous fitted wardrobe's we inherited when we moved in nearly 4 years ago.
The reason we're doing this is because we're having a bit of a move around at FG HQ. This is due to something I forgot to mention before, I'm going to be a dad again!
Not fully expected but all the same I'm happy to add to the FG squad and look forward to the new addition this May. That and promotion for City maybe!
This means I'm very busy again and plenty of DIY jobs, which means it's hard to get trading or betting.
The cheeky accas never came off. Picked off the Selectabet, bettingzone and Talkbet selections, with the Arsenal, Brum, Chelsea, Ipswich, Celtic and Millwall being the closest but it was good fun.
As for my OLBG, that also went pear shaped as I picked some good winners, such as Villa on the Asian Handicap. However I only won £200 on that and blew £500 on Lincoln and Everton.
My stake policy stinks, I just can't get the proportioning right, which is why I lose more than I win. Something I have to work really hard on.
My current bets though are based on other peoples tips on my fav sites chickendinner.com and bettingzone.co.uk. With better analysis I should be aware of whats a good bet or not.
Talking of good analysis, please check out Simple Soccer Stats, who gives top analysis on his bets, including corner bets which I have a soft spot for.
Anyway, that's enough ramble for now.
Hope some of you have had a much luck as my mate Steve minus a goal, who doubled up today the Premiership HT/FT results to win a 155/1 pound bet!
Jammy git......stay lucky. Working Hard or Hardly Working?Well what a week I've had!
Unfortunately it's not a bumper trading payout but making sure my day job still pays the bills.
I had a little shock last Friday as my new boss decided that I wasn't working hard enough, based on some fabricated stats on how many problems I should fix in a week.
Apparently I was worked 50% below exceptions, and if I didn't improve over the next week, I'd get a formal warning.
I mulled it over during the weekend and decided he was probably right that I wasn't giving 100%, but probably not as bad as he suggested.
I set about hitting the target set and after a busy week, and another meeting the boss, all is good again.
I been with this company nearly 19 years now, so things are bound to get stale, but I also need a kick up the arse now and again. However some positives are that I'm getting more organised and intend to try and apply this to everyday life instead of the just the 9 to 5.
So onto the betting/trading, I haven't done much over the last week apart from a couple of long list acca's in William Hill yesterday lunch.
Last week I traded Liverpool and Chelsea's champions league games and came out with £40 profit thats to Gerrard's (dodgy) penalty.
Withdrew £200 from Betdaq, which I'd taken out of my ailing bank account the weekend before and then tried to build up the £40 left.
I lost £25 in UEFA cup games where I opposed Villa and Man City when the in-play stats suggested they could conceded. I nearly got a result in the City game but FC Twente missed a golden chance to equalise near the end to save Hughes for now.
The other £15 was lost in the Arsenal-Man U game last week, when I went for the draw for starters, then laid Arsenal a few times on the cheap, thinking Man U would come back. The goal came too late though, so the bank was empty again.
This was a shame, as I'd spotted that Pompey-Sunderland game could well contain a late goal, as they both score and concede late goals, but with no funds now I missed out on Defoe's late penalty making me profit.
I've also been looking at a new in-play theory thanks to my new best mate Peter Webb. He's wrote an article in the latest issue of 'Racing Ahead' magazine about the number of shots in game before a goal is scored. Very interesting stuff and hopefully profitable.
Pay day next week, so not much betting again this week. A few more cheeky accas today with a few quid I have left in Paddy Power, hopefully a bit of profitable credit crunching fun out of that. Maybe even try having a PowerStats acca.
Whatever you do, until the next time, stay lucky. Angel Delight!Right then where shall I begin.
First thanks to my follow bloggers for dropping a few comments. Talkbet, Man Of Mystery (JuiceStorm) and Selectbet are always worth dropping in on.
Looking forward to Talkbet's interview on Wednesday with Man Of Mystery, should prove interesting.
So after a about a week or so since my last post, it's time to catch up. My OLBG tipping took a big downward turn during the end of October as I turned £1000 profit into a £4000 loss!!
Thankfully it's not real money and proves that correct scores and first goalscorer bets are a mugs game. I think there are certainly more scientific ways to play these markets as per my 3-3 last day theory that worked last season.
Talking of 3-3's, did anyone else notice how many popped up last weekend, there at least 3 and Watford lost 4-3 to a last minute winner.
This weekend also saw a bit of trading joy at last for the footygeek, as I managed to get in front of the laptop on Saturday for a full afternoon's trading.
It had been a manic few days beforehand with my son's 5th birthday party and Halloween meaning I had a couple of days of work but not much rest.
As it was Mrs FG suggested a £100 betting challenge, which I gladly accepted. I had managed to install my old Vista setup into a VirtualBox on Linux the week before, so I could run the new Bet Angel for Betdaq, which is currently free to download. I did this, so I could try and get some automatic betting sorted, as I struggle to trade properly these days.
However I had watched the training videos for Bet Angel the other night and was itching to try out the features. So I sat down and fired up the Bet Angel software after putting £100 into the Betdaq account. Everton v Fulham was on, and I'd fancied Everton beforehand.
As the game unfolded though it didn't look such a good bet, so I played about with the scalping options in the Bet Angel software, and after a couple of mistakes (pressing Close instead of Cancel) I managed to scalp a few quid and greened up for a £1 profit all round before Everton scored the winner.
I had also looked in on a couple of horse races after getting the taste from the training videos, however I didn't quite have the balls to risk my cash on a bad swing, so left it alone.
I instead attacked the 3pm Premiership games with great success. As I setup the markets to watch, I noticed that Arsenal were 1.4 ish and worth a lay after losing 2 defenders as well as the 2 goal lead against Spurs in midweek. I was too late however as Soccer Saturday reported a goal for Stoke from a long throw in.
The 3.6x price that came up after the goal looked value to me and I soon bashed in a couple of £20 backs. I held my nerve on this until half time and then went green on Stoke in case Wenger changed this at half time. At this point I'd also backed Wigan against Pompey, as I think Tony Adams is a bad move for them (sorry Talkbet). A penalty before half-time left me in a strong position and soon greened up in the second half as reports of Pompey bombarding the Wigan goal came through.
With a £22 odd profit now banked, I took a risk in backing Stoke again to win £56 if it stayed the same. As it was a second goal saw me put all my green on Stoke and then I went green all over for safety after Arsenal got a late goal back.
I also looked at the Blackburn-West Brom game which was perfect trading material, with the prices swinging one way then the other. As it was I failed to get involved but instead laid West Ham at Boro, with reports of the home team looking like scoring soon. They did equalise, and I held onto the £20 profit, though a couple of good saves from Boro's keeper did help.
Finished the afternoon £90 up and fairing much better than Mrs FG with her bingo!
Managed to gain another tenner in the Liverpool game, though I had ventured into the Unders market which got a bit scary as I was lucky that Liverpool missed a few good chances before I went green.
I called it a day then but was happy with my work and pleased with the new software. Check it and Peter Webb's blog out soon, I'll try and add a link soon.
Made a few pence tonight on the Coventry game after I failed to back them before the winning goal. Still, I'm calling the swings right at the minute and will hope to continue.
Touch of Deja Vu?
Stay Lucky. Some you win........some you lose.
First off, thanks to Mark Iverson for dropping me a comment and I'm glad things are going better than expected with your son Caden. With 4 kids myself I fully understand the worry you are going through and wish you and you family all the best for the future.
I'll admit the last post did seem a little downbeat in the end but I guess there are reasons to be cheerful even though October does bring me down most years.
During these cash straped moments, OLBG feed the gambler in me and has brought joy and pain over the last few days. I have been playing the big price goalscorer and correct score markets and hit the jackpot yesterday as I predicted Newcastle-Man City as 2-2 and Darlington-Bradford 2-1.
However I placed quite a few bets tonight on there and ended with about 3 wins out of 12 matches. Oh well.
Also been looking to install some new trading software for Betdaq, highlighted over at 'Bet Your Life' blog. Here is the link. It should run on Linux, which is what I'm running my laptop on now. Will let you know how I get on.
Also been looking into what is needed to create some bots after reading Man of Mystery's new blog JuiceStorm. Looking at both Python and Ruby programming languages to access either Betfair's or Betdaq's API.
I have been trading a bit on Betdaq and WBX but mainly just matched betting to generate some cash before losing on the Notts County-Brentford game on Sky the other day.
However I have spotted one or two bookies which I don't have accounts with, who are offering free bets. I will again lay these off on the exchanges to make some money.
Anyway it's getting late and tomorrows another day.
Stay Lucky. All ChangeWell it nearly been a month since my last update, so I've found 5 minutes to bring you the edited highlights of the last 28 days or so.
Betdaq, WBX, matched betting, City top of the league, visiting London, Jason Mraz, hospitals, pack lunches, school runs, work, problem management, goal scoring systems, bots, python, ruby, linux, ubuntu, deleted BRAVO system, long shot UEFA cup acca, OLBG, credit crunch, overdrawn, skint.....
That should about sum it up, anyone wanting to know more drop me a comment. Many thanks to any vistors over the last month, sorry I was out.
Well done to fellow bloggers Talkbet, Cassini, Mark Iverson for keeping me entertained during my crap work days.
I'm trying to also spruce up the site a bit and add in some of my favourite footy and web links. Nice Leicester City blue and white feel now.
Stay Lucky. Money in the bankWell my first dip into the managerial markets paid off last Friday, as Zola was unveiled as West Ham's new manager and I was about £100 richer. However my return to in-play action midweek didn't prove as successful as I lost around 20 quid trying to predict the England game. A low-scoring Croatian win was not on the cards as England impressed for a change.
The Newcastle manager market is still confusing me as many punters, I however did have a green book thanks to my Zico trade and now have my green on Deschamps after France won on Wednesday, hopefully ruling him out of replacing Domenech. Nearly laid Keegan on Friday night as looked daft that he'd return again. Not quite got the cash to lay runners just yet.
Yesterday I managed to make £40 mainly thanks to laying Sunderland when 1-0 against Wigan as Soccer Saturday reported Wigan were all over them.
Also played the 2 live games, missed the first goal in the Man U - Liverpool clash but made about 17 quid on the Under 2.5 goals by trading during half-time. No risk of a goal then. Didn't green up before Liverpool won it 2-1, so no cash.
Chelsea game was a bit more scary, I fancied Chelsea beforehand (Man City over hyped at the minute) and wish I'd had the 2.0 available just after the Liverpool game as it dropped down to 1.93 later on.
As it was I missed the kick-off and found it 1-2 by time I'd found a Setanta feed on the internet. Chelsea's price was too short for me now, so looked at Under 4.5 goals and looked to take something out of that instead. A third Chelsea goal though saw me have to take a red of around 17 quid. I then noticed the price was dropping quickly now, so traded 20 tics in about a minute to leave me with a couple of quid on Unders.
This was eventually greened out at 1.08 to give me a small profit.
So trading is going well, but will take it slowly and build the bank, I am not going lose it this time.
By the way, BRAVO 2 has hit a bit of a coding brick wall at the minute as I can't store each teams historic results. When I get a hour or so to have a crack at it again I will.
Stay Lucky. Bet unfair?First of all, where is my email?
I guess I must be one of the 99.5% of Betfair users who don't make enough money for them to worry about.
It seems the giant has finally pushed things too far and tried to bite the hand that feeds them.
I always thought the government would tax exchange traders eventually once they figured out people were making a living without paying tax.
As it is Betfair have decided to get in first.
The only thing to do seems to be look elsewhere, there must be enough people willing to move over to Betdaq and WBX, creating the liquidity elsewhere.
Better competition all round and better odds for us, maybe.
I've already started looking at Betdaq and WBX, and there seems enough cash for my level's of trading at the minute.
I am also considering creating some software to hunt out the best prices from all the exchanges, just need to teach this old dog some new programming tricks.
Stay Lucky. Next PleaseWell where have you been? What me? Oh yeah that's right.
Sorry for the lack of updates of late but a slap around the face with a wet fish and the need to get away from Gambler's poems have returned me to blogland.
To be honest I have been very busy (as usual) and blog posts have been low on the job list. I've been trying to post this since Friday but just had the 3rd family birthay in just over a week, which has taken up time and money.
As it is I'm back and trading again, mainly thanks to my readings of a stock market investor called Larry Livermore.
Reading this book (see previous posts) have help me re-evaluate by trading, and hopefully put me on the road to profit.
I'll see if I can explain, basically all traders are trying to do is get in front of the odds before the swing, one way or the other.
In football betting this is quite simple in-play, the odds shift when a goal is scored! The hard bit, anticipating it.
As such I deposited £50 into Betfair the Saturday before last and looked for an in-play opportunity. As it was nothing stood out and I didn't trade anything.
Suddenly with Keegan on the verge of quitting I looked into this market but settled into the next manager market of West Ham after Curbs quit.
I did this after Sky Sports News reported money for some Italian bloke and found the price had gone on Betfair but there was a difference between Skybet @ 11/2 and Betfaor @ 4.0. I was too slow however to deposit any funds in SkyBet and missed out.
However spotted Kevin Keen the current caretaker manager was @ 120 on Betfair for a fiver and snapped it up. The price was all wrong I soon traded out to leave a risk free win of £400 on him.
After this I looked for news on the manager's vacancy and narrowed down my selections to Zola, Donadoni and Hollier. As such when Donadoni's price shortened on Friday afternoon, I had a nice all green book. Since then I have been nibbling away at certain runners and look to be heading for £90 win on Zola or Donadoni.
I also have tried to get involved in the Newcastle market after Keegan did his usual trick of bottling it when the going gets tough.
Several false dawn's on this on but have just back Zico @ 57 and looking get out shortly to make around £16 green book if matched.
So I may have found a new way of trading, though I will still try and get involved in-play but for the minute, long term markets look the way forward.
Off to bed now, so will try and post again soon as got one or two things to write about, but for now....stay lucky. Something for the weekendAnother week gone, and it's been quite frantic at FG HQ.
Not had much chance to get BRAVO 2 developed this week, but got plenty of ideas of how to use things.
Also been continuing my reading of "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" and trying to adapt his writing to sports trading and more so footy. One or two ideas milling around my head but gonna wait until finish reading before writing things out.
Been a little tempted to have a dabble at trading again this week as it's pay day today but gonna resist until I'm fully ready to make things work.
That leaves me with OLBG and my first goalscorer trial to play with.
So here's this weeks selections, after we made 0.33 points on Fantastic Four thanks to Dean Ashton but full list lost 4.67 points last week.
[Fulham v Arsenal - van Pursie @ 5.0]...
[Blackburn v Hull - Pedersen @ 9.0]...
[Liverpool v Boro - Alves @ 10.0]...
[Newcastle v Bolton - Gutierrez @ 21.0]...
[West Brom v Everton - Cahill @ 9.0]...
[Stoke v Villa - A.Young @ 9.0]...
[Spurs v Sunderland - D.Bent @ 6.0]...
[Wigan v Chelsea - Zaki @ 12.0]...
[Man City v West Ham - Petrov @ 9.5]...
[Pompey v Man U - F.Campbell @ 6.0]
and the fab four are Pedersen, Alves, Cahill, A.Young with the usual 0.5 e/w odds (5 places @ third of odds).
Stay Lucky. The Fantasic FourWith not much action on the betting front, I'm gonna trial some mug punting for a bit of fun.
Going with 2 banks of 100 points, and selecting first goal scorers from each Premiership game for one bank and then 4 best picks each weekend.
Each selection will be 1 point (0.5 e/w).
So here goes:-
Arsenal - West Brom
Walcott @ 7.0
Bolton - Stoke
Nolan @ 10.0
Everton - Blackburn
Lescott @ 19.0
Hull - Fulham
Zamora @ 8.5
Boro - Spurs
Alves @ 7.5
Sunderland - Liverpool
Diouf @ 12
West Ham - Wigan
Ashton @ 6
Villa - Man City
Larsen @ 14
Chelsea - Pompey
Defoe @ 11
Man Utd - Newcastle
Tevez @ 5
The Fantasic four will be Ashton, Nolan, Alves and Zamora.
Stay Lucky. Reminiscences of a footy geekEvening all, just thought I'd drop another post in as it's been a while.
To be honest there's not much to report on the trading/betting front, basically because the cupboard is bare and there's no funds.
My last action on Betfair was backing a horse tip on 'The Experiment' blog called Golden Prospect. I have no arguments, he put up a good case and I had it as a straight back in hope of kick starting the footy season with fifty odd in the bank.
As it was it failed to even place but check out Graeme's blog, it certainly gives value for money with the amount of post's he puts up and is very knowledge on many aspects of trading already.
Talking of knowledgeable bloggers, please check out Matt @ Punt if you intend to be serious about trading. He's pointed me towards a site (from his Mini Punt blog) which has the book "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" which I am currently reading and finding fascinating. I'm only on chapter five but already starting to see what this game is all about now. Let's hope I can get my head round it fully.
So will no funds and also a busy lifestyle at present there not much going on betting wise at present apart from a few cheeky tips on OLBG.
I need to have everything ready and in place when I eventually get a bank roll together. I'm currently in the middle of 2 weeks worth of double shifts at work (of which the overtime should help with that bankroll) and it's taking it toll on me. Fixing problems all day in the office then home to work on BRAVO 2 and fixing problems plus looking after the kids while Mrs FG goes gym.
I still say there is a fair way to go to get the system working as I want but at this point of the season there is not normally much to have a decent punt on anyway.
I am considering a goal scorer yankee each weekend with a pool of players I like the look of from my Fantasy footy team.
Will look at the fixtures and maybe reveal all tomorrow.
That's for now, stay lucky. Laying LowEvening all. Firstly many thanks for the comments on my last post, seems I may have found something interesting to write about for a change.
All good advise by the way and I will plod on for now and hope to strike lucky with one or two ideas.
Still not much real footy going on at the minute, so dabbled in a couple of other markets with 20 quid I put into the bank Friday.
Firstly I laid Bex (oh what a hideous thought!) to not get evicted from Big Brother on Friday but the Cov Chav was too annoying for most viewers and was booted out.
I could have traded out for a smallish green but the arguments on a couple of blogs I read seems to make sense to let the gamble roll.
That lost me a tenner but on Saturday I looked in on the Twenty 20 cricket. I've played a bit of cricket before and had semi decent success last World Cup.
I not a huge fan of cricket but I get by with some small knowledge and it is a great trading sport.
I have trade 20-20 before and know the price swings quickly so only played with the tenner left. Played only the first game and won nearly a fiver after laying Kent a couple of times in the first innings. Could have had more but the price dropped from 2.4 to 1.7 after I layed @ 1.55, so took green.
So a minor bit of recreational trading in between looking after the kids and coding BRAVO 2. More on that when start testing.
Cheers for now. Watching the numbers go byTime for another geek update as the season rolls closer.
Firstly have been coding BRAVO v2 but have been a bit lazy today and can't quite get into it. This is mainly due to a few money worries which has put me on a downer.
Mrs FG and I have been discussing what we can try and next but nothing is springing out as a decent idea.
If I could add an extra grand a month to my income it would just make things comfortable (I think!) and successful trading seems possible for other people.
However I am under no illusion here. Firstly I have no money to invest seriously, unless I borrow, and my confidence in trading is not high.
After reading Flutterfly's blog from a link of Talkbet, it seems finding a decent edge in football seems almost impossible. I have to admit my favourite sport is not the best trading option. Tennis and Cricket seem better and Horse Racing looking good if you can follow the flow.
Anyway, with no current funds available I decided it was best to check out a few ideas to try and get an edge.
Scalping in footy is very difficult because a goal changes everything. So despite my problems with Unders/Over markets, I'm considering the 4.5 Unders/Overs market, which starts of with low odds around 1.2 and to me offers low risk if a goal go against the trade. Staking is key as usual, and if I can nick 10 ticks each game then maybe a profit can be made. A study on numbers of games with 5 or more goals in needed.
The other option I can see in the market, is backing odds after a goal, as they seem to drop down very swiftly if no more goals.
If anyone can give me any advice on playing these markets, it would be very helpful.
I also still think there is some good opportunities in laying winning favourites near the end of games such as if it's a draw, lay it or if one team is winning by a goal lay the winning team or even 'no goal'.
Well it's my birthday this Tuesday coming as I enter a mid-life crisis, so expect some more weird and wonderful things I can do with my life soon.
Hope everyone is good and staying lucky.
Cheers. Reading the gameWell I thought I'd better make a re-appearance during this quiet period in the year for footygeek.
I know there is footy going on at present but after Euro 2008 I needed a break to try and get my head around where I want to go next.
I've found the last couple of weeks quite enjoyable not having to worry about stats or figures or how to make a few quid on the Unders, however I feel I'm ready to enter the fray pretty soon, hopefully on my terms.
As the title may suggest, I've been catching up on my reading when I have the odd spare minute or two from When Saturday Comes and World Soccer's Euro 2008 reviews, to the footy and betting blogs including my own.
Reading my blog has brought up one or two interesting points for me to sort out.
Most interesting is the about the number of time I've built up the bank whether it be from a tenner or £100 and then blew it all when I couldn't handle a few losses.
Looking back over the year through my rough notes and blog entries I done this has happened one too many times. Adding up the amount of each bank I started with, I'm about £210 down this year.
Of course this statement also tells it's own story, in that I don't keep any decent records of what I trade or bet on, just rough numbers.
The first course of action I need to do before I start another new bank up is setup a new spreadsheet to record all trades and calculate the relevant figures I need to chart my progress. I will be using Punt's advise on what to track.
If I hadn't blown a large chunk of my bank before Euro 2008 I probably would have been ok after the semi-finals, and not placed reckless bets in the final and try and trade back some of the tournament losses.
Of course this is another part of my game which is bad, chasing. No matter how hard I try I seem to fail to handle losses.
Footy trading is probably one of the most difficult things to do on the exchanges. Unlike the horse racing where you can play a race everyone 5 or 10 minutes, footy games only occur periodically through out the day and if you get a loss it's normally bigger because a goal has changed the odds.
The Unders market is probably the nearest us footy traders can get to equal the scalping some racing traders are doing but of course we all know the problems I have with this market. The only safe period for this market is pre-match or half-time as no goals can occur and this maybe an area I can investigate.
I've been reading some interesting racing blogs in 'Betfair racing trader', 'Ticksize' and 'Bet Your Life' who have all built up their small banks to very respectable sizes now. This has taken several months of hard work scalping each day. Most impressive is Pinsticker @ Betfair Racing Trader who started with a £1000 bank from his credit card and after 6 months is now half way to his target of £100,000. I am slightly sceptical of the results at times but seems quite genuine and is an inspiration if nothing else.
I tried build banks up this way several times before by trying to make 15%, 10% then 5% each time doing well until about 2 weeks in I blew it all using too bigger stakes.
So where now, well I'm still not quite sure but I think I will try building up another bank but this time trading when possible with no pressure. Too often I try and trade when so many other things are going off in the house.
The other thing I will do is try a bank for Asian Handicap betting, which I did so well on during the Euro's.
Finally BRAVO will get kicked into life soon, and I'm currently re-coding the engine to allow me to test theory's better and do a try run of the forthcoming season. The new version will also allow me to expand easier which leagues I monitor and save me time looking for decent bets.
So as usual back to the drawing board for the footygeek and the blog may well change (hopefully for the better) to try and be more entertaining.
Good to see TalkBet back blogging again.
Cheers for now. [EURO 2008] Review - How was it for you?Well it's been well over a week now since events over in Switzerland and Austria finished, so time to bite the bullet and review how I did.
To be honest, good and bad. Financially I lost all my bank, half on Overall markets and the rest trading 27 matches.
The Outright winner market was very disappointing, as I failed to trade out of decent positions and had confusion as to what I had won and lost when viewing the market.
As teams dropped out, Betfair showed different figures to BetTrader. In the end I think Betfair was correct but need to design a spreadsheet to help with this next time.
I backed Turkey at 200 but traded out a few times thinking the would lose in the quarters and this meant I missed out on trading Croatia who I left alone and lost on.
Also jumped in on France and Italy before the second group games and lost on both of them. The overall problem was backing to many selections again and need to be more selective. As for the golden boot, everything went Pete Tong and was £30 down the drain.
However my match tips resulted in just under 16 points profit, in which if I'd have backed them to the £20 per point I stated at the start would have made £300 odd.
I perpetually did well using the Asian Handicap and having used OLBG for my tips ended the month of June in 4th in the league table of tips for Asian Handicap, winning a fiver!!
This area is certainly something I will look to develop as with a decent strike rate it looks to be a very profit method of betting for me.
On the tips front I did try and study and come to my selection as early as possible and once done did scout around for other tipsters views to see if I was on the right lines. I was occasionally swayed by others and maybe thats why the tips were not as strong near the end. Both semi's were disappointing selections as I followed the crowd and was lucky to win with Germany.
Also staking went awry near the end as I was very conservative at the start but placed bigger bets near the end when I maybe didn't need too. Staking overall was good and this money management worked well for me.
I also think I tipped too many selections per match in the end as overall we made a 1 and a half point loss thanks to Under and Overs plus CSI selections no performing.
As for the trading I averaged wins of £15 with 16 winning matches out of the 27, but the 11 losses included some heavy reds and an average loss of £30.
As usual I lost out mainly on the Unders markets and failed to have any decent trading plan or method. I had started using a backing the draw style but soon lost interest in it. As such random trading led to £60+ losses in several games.
Holland/Italy, Portugal/Germany and Spain/Russia were all great game to watch but heavy losses for me.
The positives were spotting value in backing Russia against Holland both in full time and extra time plus laying Czech Republic against Turkey.
Overall picking the best team would have been more profitable and may lead me to abandoning trading footy for the time being.
It was a very enjoyable tournament and all though I didn't see as much of the games as I wanted, I did ok. I need to lay out my plans next time in 2010 and be prepared with my tips.
During the regular footy season I used to hate when internationals came round as it meant 2 weeks without league football but I may well embrace it further now as it can prove profitable with the right studying.
BRAVO version 2 is in the planning stage now and hopefully will include International teams once the league ratings are sorted.
Euro 2008 was a experience for the footygeek but maybe not one I had hoped for. I am now looking back over the blog to try and decide the best way forward now.
I need to be selfish and ruthless to make money, and find an edge. More on this at a later date.
Cheers for now. Just a quickieIt's a week since my last update so thought I'd better give anyone still out there a quick update.
Been taking a few days out after the Euro's to reflect on things and where we go next.
I lost the rest of my bank in the final, but Spain winning was compensation for the loss. Well done for a great tournament and winning in style.
I enjoy this hobby but I need to decided if I'm gonna take it more serious or just join the mugs punters littered around cyberspace losing money.
I'm not really in the mood to write anything meaningful at the minute but been reading some interesting things in the other blogs, especially about analysis of results.
Check out Matt @ Punt.com, which is the best betting/trading blog around at the minute.
Have done a quick update of blog lists as well.
See ya later. [EURO 2008] Sunday 29th June 2008 selections - FINALSo we've come to the end and the top 2 in the betting eventually made it through to the final it which has been an excellent tournament for football. Has anyone missed England?
Anyway Germany have made it again and after performing so well against Portugal, their frail back four were exposed again against a Turkey side who in the end just ran out of luck.
An overall assessment of Germany shows that they are an average outfit and compared to others have had a slightly easy route to the final.
Spain however remain unbeaten and demolished a impressive Russian side in the semi's without their top goalscorer Villa for most of the match.
Fabregas brought his Premiership form to the big stage and is now the key factor for me. If Ballack is out as reported he should be able to help the talents in the Spanish side blossom and expose Germany's dodgy centre backs.
So were going with Spain on the Asian Handicap for 5 points, with half lost if a draw. Will also cover 1-1 draw just in case.
Have also backed Over 2.5 goals, as both defenses are not as solid as they could be.
Also backed half time draw as it could be a cagey start.
Anyway, fingers crossed and stay lucky.
19:45 Germany v Spain
5pts Spain -0.25 (Asian Handicap) @ 2.07
2pts Draw (Half Time) @ 2.1
2pts Over +2.5 (Total Goals) @ 2.25
1pt Draw 1-1 @ 6.5 Sunday 29th June 2008My silent since the semi finals probably speaks volumes, but let's say that we had another run in with the Under 2.5 goals market and lost (again!).
After the 2 semi's I should be sitting with about £150 in the bank but a crazy decision to try and scalp Unders @ 2-0 to Spain lost me a £100 in a flash.
I'm not gonna go into full details here because I think it's boring (especially as I think I've written many times before) but I was £20 up on the Match and £30 on Unders with nothing on Overs. With the danger of losing my £30 profit I decided to add another £20 to Unders, as it was covered by match result and I thought the game was over. I then decided to jump in and out with £50 to nick a bit more!
Anyway I'm banning myself from Unders until I can figure out some hard and fast rules, if there are any.
I need to find a better way of assessing numbers of goals in a game as it key to how to assess the game.
The Germany-Turkey was also very frustrating and despite the win, I again got myself in a pickle backing the Unders and ended the game with a loss. The term banker could never have been so over used in this game and I hate backing short prices.
As it was I went green at 2-1 but lost £50 on unders.
The tips for the tournament are sitting at just under 2pts down over all and trading bank currently at £63 odd after I played with the cricket and Murray game at Wimbledon yesterday.
I learnt at lot over the last 3 or 4 weeks and certainly understanding staking and money management a lot better if not else. I'll attempt to dissect my performance sometime next week as we move forward to the new season.
Been thinking about BRAVO v2 and was getting quite excited at what I could produce. However firstly I need to go back to planning and rebuild the engine to be more accurate and help me select games for review before investigating further.
It maybe that I run with the old version of BRAVO for the start of the season, as time is short now.
Have also been looking at some tipping services and how they work, offers etc., may even trial one for the start of season to see how things go. Anyone use any before or currently and recommend any, let me know.
Anyway, off to get Final selection sorted, so Stay Lucky. [EURO 2008] 25th and 26th June 2008 selectionsWell it's make or break time for the tips as we go for 2 maximum stake bets.
Germany looks a banker as Turkey must run out of luck soon, but the short price does worry me. Let's hope the whell doesn't come off this bandwagon. Also took a small chance on a draw at HT but if Germany do score first will only have small loss on this bet.
25 June 08
19:45 Germany v Turkey
5pts Germany @ 1.45
2pts Germany (Half Time) @ 1.95
2pts Draw - Germany (Half Time/Full Time) @ 4.5
Have been impressed with Russia after thinking they would struggle at the start and fair play to kickingbets blog for backing them from the start.
Hopefully it's not to late to get behind them, though I have gone for a max bet on the Unders, as most semi's are low scoring.
26 June 08
19:45 Russia v Spain
1pt Russia @ 3.8
2pts Russia +0.5 (Asian Handicap) @ 1.81
5pts Under +2.5 (Total Goals) @ 1.67
Stay Lucky (Comrades!). [EURO 2008] Quarter Finals reviewTIPS:
Total = -1.09 points
Match = 8.32 points
CSI = -4.5 points
Under/Overs = -4.91 points
Trading: £66.54 up
Well it was one step backwards then one step forward during the quarters, as I nearly lost all my bank in the first 2 games before recovering all but 45p in the second 2 games.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing in this game and of course the first game got me off to a bad start and I suddenly realised when Germany knocked in a couple of set pieces that I should have noticed Portugal struggled with these in the Czech Republic game. The German price was a corker looking at it afterwards, and two leaky defenses were going to let in goals.
Anyway, I played the Match Odds quite well and got the price swings at the right time, laid German at 2-0 and then moved green about leaving me with a small red on Portugal, when 2-1. Then moved green onto Germany before 3-1. Eventually had £14 odd win.
However my downfall again was Unders, back 2.5 for starters and losing nearly 30 quid, then tenner lost on 3.5 and finally started to add £10 on Under 4.5 before lost £30 not taking green before the 5th goal. Certainly good and bad elements to the game.
This may have accounted for how I play the second game as my bank balance went flatline before Turkey's last gasp equaliser shocked it back into life.
I started by backing Croatia as they looked the better team, but as it went on I laid it off for a small loss. I then laid the draw near the end @ 1.5 in hope someone would score but ended with £25 loss. Had also backed all correct score results which had Turkey with 1 goal (0-1, 1-1, etc) after Pullien tipped it up in the Post. Another tenner down.
So in extra time decided to scalp some profit as it looked a draw all the way now. Had initially banged in £50 on Under 1.5 goals @ 1.3 but came out in favour of draw. Also backed No goal for £8. All looked good and had come out with about 5 minutes left but got greedy and backed £50 again. Got caught by Croatia goal and shutdown my computer in discust. My Euro 2008 was over with 59p left in the bank!
I was in shock and even more so when I looked and saw Turkey lash in a equaliser with last kick of the game.
It took me a while to get my head around how I'd somehow still had money in my bank but it was time for a rethink.
Now was the time to get my bank back on track and I had the perfect game. Holland looked over rated and despite being one of my greens in the Outright market, had to be taken on. Laid them @ 1.7 against Russia and never looked back.
Also laid off some of my green on Outright market and tried to get 15.0 on Russia before they scored. Missed a great chance to rescue my Outright market.
Anyway ended up with about £30 after Russia scored and then backed Russia again in extra time as they looked the better side but still classed as underdogs. Another 20 quid added to the bank and back on track.
I took a stand that Italy would win the last quarter final but also backed the draw to lay off when looked good. Had £92 on the draw with 70 red on Spain and nothing on Italy. It got to half time and I decided to lay off everything and end with about £13 odd green all over.
With 15 minutes to go decided to shove everything on Spain as if Italy won I was ok in the Outright market and if draw then I had a chance of £60 odd as had backed Italy on peno's before kick-off.
I had £60 odd green on Spain now but no goal left me with nothing. In extra time I scalped draw again and learnt to come out quick as possible and ended with £6 which then laid off @ 1.6 for tenner if either team won it.
Also backed Spain to qualify for £30 @ 2.0 near end of extra time as would then win £30 odd if either team won on penalties.
As it was Spain did it but also left me with small Turkey green in last 4.
Moving forward now I've backed Germany v Turkey for £80 hoping to use the winnings to back Russia in Outright market and then look to lay Spain in other semi.
Stay Lucky. [EURO 2008] Sunday 22nd June 2008 selectionsWell a great night on the trading front last night, as I laid Holland correctly for a change and profited from the market not realising Russia were the better team.
Tips didn't profit though as I followed the crowd with a big Overs bet, which failed and wiped out another profitable AH tip. Hoping todays tips will put me back in the black and will review the silly mistakes.
On to today, and another mouth watering prospect as Spain and Italy lock horns. Covered the draw just in case and seems the bet to do after that is Italy on penalties.
On OLBG have also backed Italy to win Euro 2008 plus Germany v Italy final. Think they got out of jail against Romania and a win today will give them confidence to exploit Russia's defensive problems at set pieces.
19:45 Spain v Italy
2.5pts Italy @ 3.2
2.5pts Italy (Asian Handicap) @ 2.17
0.5pts No Goal Scorer (First Goalscorer) @ 7
0.5pts Draw #1-1 (Correct Score) @ 6.5
Stay Lucky. [EURO 2008] Saturday 21st June 2008 selectionsSmall win yesterday on tips but trading went down hill again, and got out of jail with the Turkey equaliser.
Today looks an interesting match and gone against the grain again backing Russia on the Asian Handicap, half my money back if Holland win by 1. Let hope we get a more entertaining 90 minutes than last night.
Full trading review tomorrow night or Monday when the dust has settled.
Stay Lucky.
19:45 Holland v Russia
3pts Over+2.5 (Goal Line) @ 2.02
2pts Russia +0.75 (Asian Handicap) @ 2.04
0.25pts e/w Andrei Arshavin (First Goalscorer) @ 11 [EURO 2008] Friday 20th June 2008 selectionsBad result for the tips and trading yesterday but were still in profit (just!).
Here todays picks (I've got both of these in Outright market, so only small bets).
Think Croatia's price is too small now, so gone for draw or Turkey win. It you got the price early you've done well.
Anyway....
Croatia v Turkey
0.5pt Draw #1-1 (Correct Score) @ 6.5
1pt Turkey+0.5 (Asian Handicap) @ 2.04
0.25pts e/w Kahveci Nihat (First Goalscorer) @ 8.5
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